A fuzzy clustering-based method for scenario analysis in strategic planning: The case of an Asian pharmaceutical company

Abstract

In today’s rapid changing market situations, many nations and companies try to keep or make better their situation and gain more market share by creating competitive advantages. Because of growing number of uncertain parameters in the environment and lack of information about the future, the strategic choice has become very complex and critical. One of the popular tools for solving the problem is scenario analysis. In this paper based on fuzzy clustering we propose a method for building, analyzing and ranking the possible scenarios. To cope with the issue of uncertain parameters of the environment in strategic planning, we use the concept of fuzzy set theory to enhance the proposed method. Finally the performance of the proposed method is illustrated in a strategic planning case in a pharmaceutical company.