Original Research

Uncertainty-reducing techniques in technological innovation

A. J.A. Sparrius
South African Journal of Business Management | Vol 11, No 3 | a1243 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.4102/sajbm.v11i3.1243 | © 2018 A. J.A. Sparrius | This work is licensed under CC Attribution 4.0
Submitted: 26 October 2018 | Published: 30 September 1980

About the author(s)

A. J.A. Sparrius, National Institute for Aeronautics and Systems Technology, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria, South Africa

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Abstract

Technology-intensive innovation is fraught with all sorts of uncertainties - uncertainties which can neither be averted nor ignored but have to be managed. This paper discusses techniques on how to handle such uncertainties in high-technology development projects under conditions of severe time pressure. The key lies in postponing decision-making if uncertainty is intolerably high, and structuring the development project in such a manner that progress is not delayed, while taking steps to rapidly and systematically reduce the uncertainty. These techniques turn out to be simple but profound.
Tegnologie-intensiewe innovasie word gekenmerk deur allerlei soorte onsekerhede - onsekerhede wat nog vermy nog verontagsaam kan word. Hierdie artikel bespreek tegnieke vir die hantering van sulke onsekerhede in hoe-tegnologie ontwikkelingsprojekte onder ernstige tydsdruk. Die sleutel le in die uitstel van besluitneming indien die onsekerhede ontoelaatbaar groot is, en in die strukturering van die ontwikkelingsprojek in so 'n wyse dat vordering nie belemmer word nie, terwyl stappe geneem word om die onsekerhede vinnig maar stelselmatig uit die weg te ruim. Hierdie tegnieke blyk eenvoudig dog diepgaande te wees.

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